Delphi Analysis as a Method of Image Creation of the Polish Future Hospital

Abstract

Theoretical background: The development of Polish hospitals is conditioned by a number of specific endo- and exogenous factors attributed to this group of entities. The aforementioned determinants relate to the predominance of prospects for action in conditions of high resource scarcity (both financial and personnel or material). The shape of Polish future hospitals is affected by the uncertainty, complexity, instability and ambiguity of the environment in which they operate. These entities need support (identification, adaptation, implication, assimilation, exploration, evaluation and accumulation) of the organizational system in achieving development goals. The effort to identify the distinctive features that may characterize the hospitals of future was undertaken by prominent Polish researchers. They were invited to participate in an expert study carried out using the Delphi method. Their answers allowed the development of an image of the Polish future hospital. This is simultaneously a desirable, probable, credible and possible image.

Purpose of the article: The aim of this study was to identify the characteristics of Polish future hospital. During the research, an expert method implemented by Delphi analysis was used. It included elements of prospective (novel) knowledge. First round involved experts sharing their intuitive assessments, as a result, an impressive set of characteristics was collected. In the next round, respondents received aggregated results based on the first round and were asked to express their individual level of agreement with other experts’ positions according to a scale of 1 to 5. There was also space for them to express their opinions or comments. The next step was to compile the collected material and present the results to the survey participants.

Research methods: The study was conducted using the Delphi method, which is a research technique used to achieve consensus among experts in a given field with recognized scientific achievements. In this case, the goal was to develop a vision of Polish hospitals of the future. The study consisted of several rounds, which allowed for clarification of the results. The experts did not know the views of the other participants, which was intended to prevent the “group effect.”

Main findings: The results of Delphi study revealed a catalog of priority future characteristics of Polish hospitals. The results of this study will be used in further empirical research. The study provides an overview of future hospital perspectives, as well as recognition of their characteristics. They also provide a pretext for creative insights into the future of hospitals by managers of such facilities. The study also complements the presented approaches, procedures and techniques used in studies of the future. No research relating to image formation of future hospital has been carried out in Poland so far.